Sunday, February 8, 2015

Market Analysis for Week of 2/9/2014

Here's a brief big picture outlook, also known as my best guess based on current information.

Dollar daily.  Me likes higher.  I'm thinking $99 then $90 then $120.  Note how the dollar held the 20-day.

The Euro is doomed.

ES daily.  The clue of breaking out for a run higher now will be putting in a higher low by holding either the 2045 Friday low or the 2031 20-day/50-day convergence.  The Greece situation could determine whether we need one more trip down to the lows of the range or not.  Regardless, I'm still thinking one more leg higher in equities before this bull dies.  

NQ daily.  Same thing.  Need to hold a higher low to go.  Can't rule out one more trip down first, but I'm thinking a breakout that holds will double this range for another 300 points.  

Gold weekly.   I think gold will make its way down to the $1205 area and hold that uptrend line off the Nov lows and make a solid rally, possibly back to the recent $1300 highs.  But I believe gold will eventually resolve this triangle to the downside and we will see triple digits either later this year or 2016.  Note how gold couldn't even make it to the downtrend line from last year's highs. 

Bonds weekly.  If we assume equities hold and breakout now, I'd expect bonds to continue being weak, possibly as far as that uptrend line off last year's lows.  A lot depends on the Greece can being kicked further down the road.  Eventually, though, the equity bull dies and bonds return to their highs.  I'm thinking either later this year or 2016.  

Oil weekly.  You have to be open to a further bounce here.  Too early to tell.  A simple 38% Fib retracement would take us all the way back to $68.  The 50-day looms at $55 though.  Wherever this does stop, I'm thinking we roll back over and test the 2008 lows at $32.  I would need a risk point to play in order to get involved.  

Obviously, as information changes, I will adjust, but that's what I'm thinking at the moment. 

Bonus Track: 

For your amusement, here's one of the funnier bits I've seen lately.  Give it a minute.