Dollar monthly. Couldn't be happier with this. I've moved in and out of it unnecessarily a few times to avoid the binary events, but still tracking $99. A strong dollar can not work in the debt saturated world the central banks have created, so the Fed will be forced to stop this. I agree with the folks who think the Fed will raise rates in August. Except I think the year will be 2027.
EURUSD monthly. The next spot for possible support is 1.0750. It seems like this wants parity and eventually the all-time lows. I'm doubtful we don't get a sizable bounce at some point that I'd like to avoid. I'm hoping to see it through to the 1.0750 mark and see where we stand.
ES daily. This is a little sloppy, but it broke the downtrend line. If it holds the 20/50-day for support, it should continue higher. Barring a breakdown in the USD/JPY, I'd expect new highs in the coming weeks. The top of that channel hasn't been broken in three years, so you have to be careful there.
NQ 4hr chart. I used this uptrend line a couple times for entries. If it comes down there again, I'll give it another go. If this uptrend line breaks for some reason, I'll step back and see if it wants to go lower still. I bet Apple resolves this issue.
Nasdaq composite monthly. If we breakout this week, I'm still thinking we're headed for dotcom bubble highs, fueled by central banks of course. You have to separate the corporations, who are doing fine as they expand due to globalization, and governments who have unfixable balance sheet issues as the jobs in their countries are stripped away, leaving them with exploding debt and dwindling workers to pay it.
Oil monthly. If Jan closes below $47, it's likely headed to the 2008 lows, which is another thing equities would like to see reverse. While the central banks forcing stocks upward should continue there certainly are more cracks appearing in the illusion of their recovery.
I sure would like someone who thinks a real recovery is happening to explain why oil, copper, steel, iron ore, lumber, and all the rest of the commodities that actually create stuff in the real world are moving dramatically from the upper left to the lower right on the charts. And why long-term bonds are staying bid. And why the labor participation rate is at 38-year lows. And why we keep going into greater and greater debt with nothing to show for it.
These three charts are pretty much the only thing you need to know to understand what's happening is not fixable by central banks. Employment since 2000 and the demographic spending pattern of the baby boomers.
Ever since 2000 when globalization stripped the manufacturing base from the developed world and transferred the jobs to the emerging economies, the central banks and governments have been scrambling to fill the hole by creating false demand through a stock market bubble, a housing bubble, repressing interest rates, flooding the world with money, and deficit spending. What should have happened in the late 90s as corporations sought higher profits through cheap labor is a lowering of developed world wages to keep the jobs onshore. But governments impose a minimum wage on the free market and unions priced themselves out of work. So the jobs went overseas and there's been nothing to replace them. Globalization is deflationary. When you compound the problem with the demographic spending pattern of the baby boomers on the decline and a world already awash with debt, there is no source of real sustainable demand, and certainly none capable of paying back the debt. The central banks are trying to jumpstart a car with no engine in it.