It's pretty clear my flip-flop on the dollar was wrong, so I gathered in my chips and will wait on what I hope is the part I got right: the Fed ain't cutting in July.
Right now the market has it priced at a 94.1% chance they're cutting 25bps, BUT what if the market is off by 94.1% because I think there's 0% chance they cut in July. What if Powell walks back the cut at his testimony this week by saying something like: "we are ready to act, but why would we waste one of our precious bullets in July when the stock market isn't going down yet?"
If so, I would think gold would backtest the breakout and likely fall back into range to shakeout the leverage; you would think stocks would selloff, but at this point does anything matter to the stock market? And most importantly treasuries should continue pulling back. And the dollar would break out.
This was supposed to be fun. What happened to the fun?
PS: Honestly, I think the right move is going full Gartman. That dollar reversal was a 200-day shakeout. It's going higher.
