So that's the end of my bullish bias toward the USD, which should make for a fun environment for awhile since the reflation trade should be on now. Meaning, unless something dramatic happens, which I can't figure out - I guess improving data, or an uber dovish Draghi - everything should go up now. The best trades will likely be gold, silver, the miners, emerging markets...the anti-dollar trade. Bonds are stretched, but I don't see why the whole complex doesn't go to 0% rates and beyond. I'm thinking July won't happen, so there will likely be buyable pullbacks from the disappointment, or maybe some surprise good data. September seems more likely to me. I'm pretty heavy in Amazon and Apple and some NQ. Just got heavy into gold after the Fed today. Bought oil small and I'm gonna buy the miners on consolidations. I've been in the 2-year and 10-year not big or anything, but I don't think I can hold anymore. Maybe end of week and then I'll look for pullbacks into the averages.
I think you have to look at the dollar like this was all a pullback in an ongoing bear market, which has been the view of Peter Schiff and Jeffrey Gundlach all along. To me, that's not confirmed until the giant triangle in the Euro is taken out, but you'd be a fool not to consider it now.
Monthly dollar.
Monthly Euro
Why won't Apple and Amazon double from here? Amzn $1908, Apple $198
I would reconsider the reflation trade if the dollar took out the recent highs just over $98. And it better not. This should be fun. The first step will be the dollar taking out the 200-day to the downside. If I wake up and gold gave back the breakout I'm gonna need a therapist.
