This is brief and all I have time for, so here's the SUMMARY: long gold, long silver, long treasuries, flat oil, flat equities, flat dollar.
Daily.
Gold may very well have a perfect storm coming for the resumption of its bullish trend. Not that it can't thrash around for awhile still, so position sizing is key. Weekly
Daily.
I expect bonds to also trade higher in price, lower in yield, and benefit from flight to safety flows. Weekly.
Daily.
Sure, the corona virus could be the catalyst to end the stock rally for awhile, but there's so much uncertainty to it. The other virus to worry about is corona Sanders. I personally don't think he will beat Trump but I can't see this clearly because I understand economics (which is why I don't like Trump either). However, the machines need a reason to sell and now they have plenty. I do not know the exact timing, but I do know the risk/reward on the long side of equities has evaporated, so for me it's an easy decision to go flat and wait to see if a short opportunity presents itself, which I will likely NOT take because I don't want to deal with it. I'm focused on other things. Look how far down stocks need to go to take out the uptrend, which is why if a big selloff occurs, the amount of Fed easing that will be forced to happen will be staggering. ES weekly.
Daily.
The dollar is still uncertain to me. You tell me what happens first: a Eurozone banking crisis, or the Fed returning to staggering amounts of QE?
Personally, I'm not willing to short the dollar unless the EUR/USD puts in a higher low or a double bottom and then it needs to forcibly take out the recent high, but the better risk/reward is playing near a double bottom because you'll either have superb trade location or a small loss. I'm thinking at the moment that unless a banking crisis or QE happens, this will thrash around until the presidential election and then hopefully make a strong decision, but I still have my eyes on the triangle. Without a clear catalyst, though, you have to be careful of the fakeout.
EUR/USD weekly
Daily.
The oil trade has been annoying for both sides. I'm thinking if stocks rollover, then oil keeps going down, but when the Fed steps back in the game, it should lead to a massive rally. I don't understand why people think reflation can't happen again in a major way. The Fed has no limits to their balance sheet. The only limit is a plunging dollar taking out all-time lows. Until that happens, they have enormous ammunition. The ideal scenario for oil would be a deep false breakdown reversal. Daily.
I might have a billion dollar idea, so my attention will be on that for awhile. Till next time...
